Post by Merlin on Aug 31, 2008 17:44:45 GMT
State of the Premier League 1. The Championship
Most clubs now have about five matches left to go to complete their Premier League programme, although Stoke still have 10 fixtures to race while Workington have only 2. As far as the main contenders for the championship are concerned there are now only two who seem to have a realistic chance of winning – Edinburgh and Somerset.
Looking at the table based on away points gained less home points dropped the top four in the league stand as follows: Edinburgh +17, King’s Lynn +12, Somerset +12, Workington +11. King’s Lynn look likely to finish with the best race points difference and, with a win at Mildenhall (their only remaining away match) virtually certain, their finishing score on the table will be +15. Workington have no more away matches so can not improve on +11.
This means that, assuming that the top four all win their remaining home matches, Edinburgh’s +17 is the target to beat and only Somerset can do that. Edinburgh’s home matches left are against Glasgow and Newcastle while Somerset’s is against Mildenhall. So it’s the away results which will matter.
Edinburgh have the better race points difference (+348 to +272) but it’s unlikely that that will be needed to split the sides if they tie on league points. To pass the Monarchs’ +17 Somerset need to record two more away wins. Their remaining away programme is: Birmingham (Sep 3), Rye House (Sep 6), Reading (Sep 8), Isle of Wight (Sep 9) and Sheffield (Sep 11). Another Edinburgh away win would leave them needing three away wins. The remaining away programme for Edinburgh is: Redcar (Sep 11) Newcastle (Sep 14) and Glasgow (still to be arranged).
2. The Play-Offs
The top four clubs in the league table at the cut-off date of 26 September, as far as I understand, will qualify for the play-offs via two home and away semi finals and a home and away final. The winners will then play the bottom club in the Elite League table on a home and away basis to decide whether they will be promoted to the Elite League and whether the Elite League club will be relegated to the Premier League.
If there are no more away wins for any of the top six teams and no more dropped home points then their final points tallies will be: 1. Edinburgh 47, 2.Somerset 42, 3.King’s Lynn 42, 4. Workington 41, 5. Berwick 37, 6. Reading 36.
Berwick have only one more away match (against Glasgow) so could not get into the top four unless King’s Lynn or Workington drop points at home. If Reading win two of their remaining three away matches (against Scunthorpe and Stoke) (their away match against King’s Lynn looks like too much of a long shot!) they would reach 42 points and knock out Workington. It’s an odds-on bet though that the current top four in the league will also be the top four at the cut-off date. The only matches which are not scheduled to be ridden before the cut-off are the match between the Isle of Wight and Stoke, the match between Glasgow and Edinburgh and the match between Glasgow and Berwick (the latter two have still to be arranged).
There are still two outsiders for a top four place mainly because they have ridden so few away matches. They are Rye House and Isle of Wight both of whom have four away matches to race with a potential 12 points to add to 6 home points from the three home matches both have to race. Both teams could finish with 45 points but it’s a big ask.
The team top of the league gets to choose their opponents from the other three for their semi final tie.
3. The Young Shield
The teams finishing in fifth to twelfth (inclusive) positions will contest the Young Shield on the same basis as before.
At present the line up is likely to be: Berwick, Reading, Redcar, Sheffield, Scunthorpe, Rye House, Isle of Wight and Birmingham. Newcastle could well oust one of those (mainly Birmingham) because they still have 8 matches to race (four home and four away) and sit only six points behind Birmingham.
Stoke too have six away matches and four home to race and could pull back the ten point lead the Brummies have on them in the current table. But it is already a lost cause for Glasgow and Mildenhall who are already out of touch with the others.
You pays your money and takes your choice. These stats were calculated on Sunday, 31 August before the match between Newcastle and Rye House had been raced. I hope they’re OK but can’t guarantee their accuracy!
Most clubs now have about five matches left to go to complete their Premier League programme, although Stoke still have 10 fixtures to race while Workington have only 2. As far as the main contenders for the championship are concerned there are now only two who seem to have a realistic chance of winning – Edinburgh and Somerset.
Looking at the table based on away points gained less home points dropped the top four in the league stand as follows: Edinburgh +17, King’s Lynn +12, Somerset +12, Workington +11. King’s Lynn look likely to finish with the best race points difference and, with a win at Mildenhall (their only remaining away match) virtually certain, their finishing score on the table will be +15. Workington have no more away matches so can not improve on +11.
This means that, assuming that the top four all win their remaining home matches, Edinburgh’s +17 is the target to beat and only Somerset can do that. Edinburgh’s home matches left are against Glasgow and Newcastle while Somerset’s is against Mildenhall. So it’s the away results which will matter.
Edinburgh have the better race points difference (+348 to +272) but it’s unlikely that that will be needed to split the sides if they tie on league points. To pass the Monarchs’ +17 Somerset need to record two more away wins. Their remaining away programme is: Birmingham (Sep 3), Rye House (Sep 6), Reading (Sep 8), Isle of Wight (Sep 9) and Sheffield (Sep 11). Another Edinburgh away win would leave them needing three away wins. The remaining away programme for Edinburgh is: Redcar (Sep 11) Newcastle (Sep 14) and Glasgow (still to be arranged).
2. The Play-Offs
The top four clubs in the league table at the cut-off date of 26 September, as far as I understand, will qualify for the play-offs via two home and away semi finals and a home and away final. The winners will then play the bottom club in the Elite League table on a home and away basis to decide whether they will be promoted to the Elite League and whether the Elite League club will be relegated to the Premier League.
If there are no more away wins for any of the top six teams and no more dropped home points then their final points tallies will be: 1. Edinburgh 47, 2.Somerset 42, 3.King’s Lynn 42, 4. Workington 41, 5. Berwick 37, 6. Reading 36.
Berwick have only one more away match (against Glasgow) so could not get into the top four unless King’s Lynn or Workington drop points at home. If Reading win two of their remaining three away matches (against Scunthorpe and Stoke) (their away match against King’s Lynn looks like too much of a long shot!) they would reach 42 points and knock out Workington. It’s an odds-on bet though that the current top four in the league will also be the top four at the cut-off date. The only matches which are not scheduled to be ridden before the cut-off are the match between the Isle of Wight and Stoke, the match between Glasgow and Edinburgh and the match between Glasgow and Berwick (the latter two have still to be arranged).
There are still two outsiders for a top four place mainly because they have ridden so few away matches. They are Rye House and Isle of Wight both of whom have four away matches to race with a potential 12 points to add to 6 home points from the three home matches both have to race. Both teams could finish with 45 points but it’s a big ask.
The team top of the league gets to choose their opponents from the other three for their semi final tie.
3. The Young Shield
The teams finishing in fifth to twelfth (inclusive) positions will contest the Young Shield on the same basis as before.
At present the line up is likely to be: Berwick, Reading, Redcar, Sheffield, Scunthorpe, Rye House, Isle of Wight and Birmingham. Newcastle could well oust one of those (mainly Birmingham) because they still have 8 matches to race (four home and four away) and sit only six points behind Birmingham.
Stoke too have six away matches and four home to race and could pull back the ten point lead the Brummies have on them in the current table. But it is already a lost cause for Glasgow and Mildenhall who are already out of touch with the others.
You pays your money and takes your choice. These stats were calculated on Sunday, 31 August before the match between Newcastle and Rye House had been raced. I hope they’re OK but can’t guarantee their accuracy!